5 reasons why Modi will not last beyond 2019

71

Apoorv Pathak

A united and prepared opposition, unease over Hindutva philosophy, rising inflation, and likely suboptimal economic performance are among the reasons why Modi is unlikely to get a second term, though it is a bit too early to arrive a definitive conclusion.

For the first time in three decades a party – the BJP under Narendra Modi — won a majority on its own in 2014 general elections. When Modi won such a massive mandate, even his critics momentarily felt that the next general elections in 2019 was a done deal.

Buoyed by a historic landslide win, Modi too believed and behaved like someone who is sure to remain PM, at least till 2024. But 19 months down the line, with struggling economy, a mini revolt by intelligentsia, widespread rural distress, perception of breakdown in social harmony, and a combative opposition breathing down government’s throat and stalling its agenda combines to make it appear that, after all, the 2019 dream looks hazy.

But I would argue due to multiple factors enumerated below Modi is not just uncertain but unlikely to get another term.

United and prepared opposition

In 2014, Modi was an enigma who took Indian political scenario by storm with his shock-and-awe technique. A campaign so intensive, extensive and innovative had rarely been seen before. Rivals of Modi were caught off-guard, not knowing how to respond. Before they could comprehend, Modi had sailed to shores of victory.

But 2019 will be a different story altogether. Modi will no longer be the unknown, underestimated force. Already his rivals have started to match his rhetoric, mobilisation, use of technology (as seen in results of assembly elections in Delhi and Bihar).

So what was one of his biggest advantages in 2014 is unlikely to be so in 2019.

Moreover, the momentous victory of 2014 led to the BJP replacing the Congress as the central axis of Indian politics. Being the central axis is more a liability than asset as then all opposition politics necessarily involves opposition to the central party. Also, socialist liberal parties (naturally anti-BJP) who had difficulty aligning with the Congress due to anti-Congressism arising due to the Congress being the central pole would no longer have the dilemma.

This was seen in JD (U) dropping its anti-Congress position while aligning with it. Traditional Congress allies who deserted the party to avoid anti-incumbency of the UPA too would be more willing to align with it in 2019 when no such anti-incumbency against the UPA would be there.

Modi’s dominating tendency and his hold-no-hostage politics is also seeing more parties make the defeat of BJP as their prime objective. A good case in point is AAP. All these factors taken together will see a more coordinated and united opposition with higher index of opposition unity. This will mean even if the BJP manages to hold on to its vote share (unlikely due to other discussed factors) it seats tally will reduce significantly.

Double anti-incumbency in strongholds

Among the major factors behind Modi’s victory was unprecedented anti-incumbency against the highly unpopular and scam-ridden UPA government. In 2019, not only would Modi be denied that benefit, he will also have to deal with anti-incumbency of his own.

In 2014, BJP won 206 seats out of 282 seats from nine Hindi heartland states and Gujarat. Such historic strike rate was possible also because many of these states had BJP governments, which were popular (MP, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Rajasthan) or anti-BJP governments which were unpopular (SP in UP, Cong-NCP in Maharashtra). But in the short time from then BJP has been rocked by troubles in its strongholds: Vyapam scam in MP, Patel agitation in Gujarat, Lalitgate in Rajasthan, and PDS scam in Chattisgarh, rendering its governments tainted and vulnerable.

The effect of such setbacks has also started manifesting electorally with the Congress wresting a Lok Sabha seat from the BJP in Ratlam-Jhabua bypoll in MP, BJP doing badly in local polls in Gujarat and Rajasthan and the Congress gaining a seat in Jharkhand assembly bypolls.

Thus, in 2019, BJP will have to fight against anti anti-incumbency of its state governments and central government.

Under such circumstances it seems implausible that the BJP will be able to perform robustly in these 282 where it swept in 2014. And since the BJP is basically a Hindi heartland party with limited presence in southern and eastern states this would mean BJP will find hard to win a mandate again.

Opposition to Hindutva

BJP always has a delicate job of managing its hardcore supporters expectations without antagonising liberal Hindus who are repulsed at the politics of Hindutva. But this act of running-with-the-hare-hunting-with-the-hound becomes impossible when the BJP is in power.

The spotlight that comes due to being in power reveals this contradiction glaringly when the mindset of Shakshi Maharaj of the world can then no longer be pushed under the carpet. Inevitably, by end of the BJP rule at centre, liberals may become desperate to vote out the government.

Already, the discontent and discomfort among liberal Indians with retrograde elements of the government is perceptible when its only 19 months. By 2019 the patience of liberal Indians would have been so tested by the RSS’s social, cultural agenda the government is pursuing that one finds it hard to imagine them voting for Modi. Also, the sense of insecurity among minorities would also lead to greater consolidation against Modi. The constitutional safeguards would also mean that Modi cannot please his hardcore supporters enough even if he wants to. So, even when Modi looks set to lose the liberal voters, who anyway voted for him in 2014 more out of disgust with the Congress than affection for the BJP, he will find it hard to win more orthodox Hindus. Thus opposition to Hindutva is going to be another major factor for loss of votes in 2019.

Inflation woes

The crude prices are expected to start rising again from late 2017. This would mean inflation would become a trouble at the most inopportune time for Modi government when it would only be a year away from elections.Also given the rural distress sooner or later modi government will have to start raising MSP’s again further fuelling inflation. The government already has signalled reviving NREGA to counter rural distress. This will raise farm wages and further escalate inflation. Like many governments before it, Modi government too will have to face an electorate angry with inflation. Given Modi’s economic track record was most important reason for his mandate this can hurt him where it hurts most.

Likely suboptimal economic performance

More than any other thing, Modi’s 2014 mandate was one for growth. He held out a promise of economic miracle and people bought it. All the above cited adverse factors can still be negated if that promise of economic miracle is realised. But unfortunately for Modi ,the prospect of stellar growth performance too looks a distant prospect for variety of reasons.

First, the golden days of exporting ones ways to prosperity are over. With persistent depression in global demand India can no longer rely on global demand to lift its growth. It is being globally recognised that growth will not be back to the historic level of the last decade.

Second, the Indian economy is plagued by structural issues like low private investment due to stressed corporate balance sheet, poor credit availability due to banks reeling under high NPA’s.etc . These structural issues are holding down our growth and they are unlikely to go away so quickly. Even if they are addressed ,the clean-up will require economic pain and not gain in the short to medium term.

Third, in absence of a majority in Rajya Sabha, Modi’s ability to carry out significant economic reforms — be it labour reforms, land reforms or tax reform — is severely constrained. His combative attitude and the acrimony between the government and opposition makes any improvement unlikely. So, the possibility of drastic reforms compensating for the depressed global environment and domestic issues too is remote.

In any case, the dreams that Modi sold in 2014 were too unrealistic to be achieved in a favourable environment also. Promising the moon is easy, delivering it is tough. By 2019, as jobs and growth remain distant, more and more voters will realise that the magician with a magic wind was no magician, after all. Therefore, on the front of economy too Modi is more likely to lose votes than gain.

Historically, great hopes are soon followed by greater disappointments. Modi’s political rise and his likely fall in 2019 will be one more instance of hope turned into disappointment.

The author has studied IIT Roorkee

71 COMMENTS

    • Unless you are getting chaddi quota of Dal at Rs. 50/-, Onion at Rs.20/- etc…
      Economic Performance?? USD 1 = Rs.66.00
      Exports are down.
      10 crore jobs that modi promised = Delivery ?????
      All this after crude oil price is as low as $37 per barrel..

    • Yes. It is also not true that Modi lost Bihar and Delhi so badly that BJP Finally decided to stop using him as Face as they recognized the error, it was Modi himself. Local BJP leaders in Bihar torn down his posters during Bypoll after Bihar results to save themselves from losing. Such is the charisma that is left for Modi in this country. Minus the elite class, no other person sees any hope in him anymore. And you know one thing, Elite class kind of never votes. Sits home and be cynical forever type Guys they are. 🙂

  1. If writing this bullshit makes you happy, so be it. Looks like that author already made up his mind years before even writing this article. Go talk to people on ground, and dig a bit deeper into his policies and work, to get a real view.

  2. Crude prices may or may not start rising in 2017. If OPEC says so then it is their wishful thinking. They(prices) may even dip further. I am not predicting. I just want to say that it is anyone’s guess. I wonder how reviewing nrega would add to inflation. Labor still eat government supplies of grains. Even if nrega adds to inflation then should it not be promoted? Every economic activity will affect either supply or demand side in some way and effectively have some impact on inflation.
    India was never a exporting giant. Falling rupee is an advantage for exports. The world is in a depressed economic state but opportunities have not vanished overnight. Good products always sell.
    Modi may or may not get elected. He won because of propaganda. He may lose because of counter propoganda. Modi and his team is working hard. This is what even his opponents will agree. Problem with your article is, you started with a theory that ‘modi may not win again’ and than tried pointing everything towards it. Many of your points are no points at all.

    • Totally agree…mere loss of some lustre does not mean he will lose elections….he may or may not, its too early to say. What he seems to have done wrong is seriously annoying some pro BJP segments like the ex servicemen. Also Jat and Patidar agitations are a worry. The reasons cited in the article are no reasons at all, just an opposing perception which cuts no ice with committed Modi voters.

    • Antagonising almost every section of society except the extreme Hindutva brigade will be the death knell of the BJP govt. They first antagonised the minorities, then the dalits and tribals.Already the liberal sections are turning g away because of vigilantism by Talibanist Hindu groups.

  3. hahaha Modi could never loose orthodox hindu vote even if he dis own hindutva he is last hindu hope in #sickular political spectrum .AAP the anti-corruption crusaders are now lost in its own corruption they won due to virgin politics of India against corruption but now their virginity is claimed by Manoj ,tomar ,somnath,rajender gupta ,prashant bhushan ,yadav,that mulla minister don’t know who was the first .No royal political dynasty party will choose congress rahul gandhi as their apparent leader in 2019.Its a old saying that if you get 200 you are the next PM sure shot .This term of modi will get him the secular certificate so that others can join him for power like PDP did. BJP might loose the shine but Modi never required BJP to became PM its BJP that required Modi to be in power.Modi got full support of RSS/BJP foot soldiers they will create the street campaign like they did in 2014 only because every feel he is the only hope .IN last Modi cannot and will never be defeated because of very simple reason that India is a Hindu rastra with hindu majority and Hindu whether hardliner or liberal like Modi magic.

  4. You are being generous, I doubt whether this government will last till 2019 or not ….. 75+ MP’s can revolt anytime ..currently its under the carpet … soon we will see the collective force of unseen …. 100+ ex congressman will never let this government complete its term …. Bhakts start abusing now 😛

    • but opposition unity will bring bjp down inspite of sticking to its vote bank. even those who voted for bjp have a rethink now due to its overexposure of hindutva. I feel it is foolish for bjp to overindulge in hindutva when those vote bank they try to achieve is already with them while those secular people who voted them in the hope of Modi,s good governance are disappointed.

    • yes bcos of that every time BJP reminds or talks about congress 50-60 years of rule. Puttings themselves in poor light, from now on they have become combative.

  5. Nobody thought Modi’s incompetence would bring such rapid downfall of the chaddi enterprise. The sooner it happens the better for the country and the world.

    • Wake up moron, incompetence of NAMO is not yo loot country in yr terms, looting of country is the competence, where the f… R u from?

  6. Writer ki intro kya hai “The author has studied IIT Roorkee”…WoW…bahut bada jhanda gar lia…pehla aur last tha Roorki se kya ?

    Useless article written to sound different without actually being one.

  7. united opposition and distorted supposition , unemployment, corruption at state levels, non priority policies for Sc/st/obc/minority/ women/ farmers/students, war like situations….these are the ditches if not filled and expectations not up to the likings of people will surely anti- incumbent but still people want 7 are willing to give another chance for own uplift after policy paralysis and now parliament Paralysis by congress .though it’s going to gain in Assam and Kerala elections but still people will like to see more maturity in opposition leadership. Kejariwal has fair chance to lead if can win Pun jab. United opposition under Arvind Kejriwal will be a real threat for dislodging NDA in 2019 not Congress.

  8. Just only last 10 years Congress looted 12 lac cr. public money through various scams and they are now using some fraction of those money for various anty modi campaign like Intolerance issue, Muslim issue, Dalit issue and also blocking all development in the upper hose . Now , tell frankly how much money u hv. got from congress for this article?

  9. Some people live in fools paradise and BJP guys are one of them. They use Hindi slang and terms like sushan, desh paragti lker raha. No 1 ke baiman hein ye log or jhoote. Modi has lost his mental balance and is jumping too much. He is virtually zero in economics and public administration. PM is not appointed for Jhadoo baazi. He is raising taxes and silently raising LPG cylinder prices and rail fares. This is situation when his throat is caught in Rajyasbaha. Other wise he would have gone berserk. Modi team lie daily and show as if so big things are happening. Modi is all round failure since he is not honest. He is a braggart and liar.Take BJP manifesto you will notice not even 2 points have been implemented. Where is Lokpal and Black money? Time for Modi to wind up.

    • If you want to close your eyes, no one can help you. Why do you expect Modi to fulfill promises in 19 months while he is elected for a five year term? Did you ever ask Congress in its 10 years uninterrupted rule how many of its promises were kept?

  10. I don’t know why JKR allows day dreaming articles. What’s the hurry to predict 2019, it’s still good 3.5 years away. Of course if you are a AAP or Congress or any other secular party’s supporter, you have right to dream that happening. People had written off Nitish, but he’s back, so is Lalu. Modi has not been very successful in fulfilling the promises so far, but he’s has time to do so.

  11. It too happened with Rajeev Gandhi( after 1987) and with Indira (Durga) Gandhi ( after emergency 1975). Both of them stormed into the seat of power with a strong velocity of mass support but could not hold it till their tenure. Of course, Indira Gandhi came back to power after remaining as tough opposition leader for 3 years when the then ruling Janta Party made a mess of its governance. One may recall that same people who voted her out brought her in with a strong mandate not because they forgot the past deeds of Congress under her leadership. In India peoples’ perception grows from the functioning of the present ruling party and not from the quality of opposition. In Mr. Modi’s case he has been immensely helping not only the opposing political parties to be united but also the social forces especially the poorer and marginalized forces in rural and urban areas. This very factor (which has not been mentioned in the article) has galvanized Congress and many other parties to take up issues related to land, forest ,livelihood, health, education etc. Even frontal organizations of RSS like BMS, SJM, Adivasi kayan are resisting against many projects of this govt. eg. Land acquisition ordinance,changing of labour laws ,FDI in retail etc. Present perception of large sections of marginalized people about this regime is Aamiron ki Sarkar. So, unless some drastic moves are taken by the govt it will be very difficult for Modiji to come back. Most unlikely this regime can take such effective measures to provide relief to the poor from the attack of corporate and their contractors. So, it looks inevitable like someone said ‘ Toofan ki tarha aaye the Aandhi ki tarha jayenge ‘! Jai Hind !

  12. I voted for modiji and will vote for modiji…the bunch of jokers AAP and its mouthpiece write as many articles they want…jai hind

  13. What a lousy analysis-got switched off in the first sentence itself: riding inflation, my foot, current inflation is at -.91. Sub optimal economic condition, effing moronic statement- my home loan emi has come down by 8% for the first time, pay less by 10 rupees a litre from 2014 rates, my tax returns deposited in 10 days for the first time

    • There is not loot of country in Lakshmi crores in one scam like was done for last 55 yrs. so what u want us the loot of country and tax money, you effing moron?

      • if u want to compete with western powers , keep church and state seaparte else it will be a disaster especially for India ( who is almost becoming a super power )
        but with these relgious intolereance can crumble its unity in diversity

      • if u want to compete with western powers , keep church and state seaparte else it will be a disaster especially for India ( who is almost becoming a super power )
        but with these relgious intolereance can crumble its unity in diversity1

  14. Hindus have already realised and voted modi to power believing that he is the best torch bearer of hindus and most of the communal muslims of this country are pissing at the very mention of modi’s name. I call upon all hindus not to fall prey to dirty games of presstitutes . This is the time to withstand external and intetnal forces working day in day out to weaken hindu community. Let us sacrifice some of our comforts for the sake of hindus and vote modi again to power for next term too lest all the goodwork done by modi should come to zero under all fool opposition parties.

  15. wasted my 5 min…and wasting another 2 to write this….But this looks like shabby work full with personal opinion and yes very long term prediction…..btw i laughed when read expectation abt oil price. How do u know it would rise and whose prediction and even it will rise how you sure govt cant pass on the money saved in last 12 months to cushion the rise….Stupid writer and stupid post…never coming back to this jantakareporter

  16. Anyway Modi won the elections with less than 33% mandate … It was just because there was no united opposition and No viable option available.. The next election will be a different ball game altogether.. We will have many honest leaders emerging in the coming years to challenge the current govt.. Lets watch

  17. Well you not only seem to study Modi but also IIT Roorkee ( the author has studied IIT Roorkee says your signature). What an imagination! Sub prime blah blah…..go to the villages . That’s were Voting India is- not in your head

  18. modi will be history like manmohan singh .he will not be seen again.because of false electoral promises like black money issue and jobs creation he came to power .ther is no point in trusting a lair again.his fans are trying hard from drowning in deep waters ,but he is destined to drown .

    • BS– Why are you so eager to prove your foolishness over here ? The government is here for 5 yr and you have declared a war against them in 2 yrs. only ?? Did you gave a second thought on how promises can be fulfilled in the remaining upcoming yrs. ? Please display some common sense for God sake.

  19. Modi will prevail against all your ruling with help of Amithsha and ram Bagawath plans to plant bombs, creating stories against Muslims which will split communities and make our country weaker and weaker again and billionaires will enjoy Modi’s administration and Modi will fight again with pouring money

  20. Who is the biggest looser if this actually happens ?…The biggest blunder of this articles lies with first line itself…united and prepared opposition !!!! 100% pure sponsored article….Its the common man who will be set on fire if congress returns to power….Entire Gujarat shall welcome Modi “back” in 2019 if it happens…..

  21. “In 2014, Rivals of Modi were caught off-guard, not knowing how to respond”.

    That’s got to be the understatement of the century. Opposition has been harping Modi, Modi since 2002. I am a BJP supporter, but till late 2013, I did not believe that Modi would become PM. The constant fear mongering created by the opposition propelled him into the last mile. If the opposition has considered him as another normal opponent, he would not have been able to get the majority.

  22. He stays or not, all these political parties are the same, they promise you the moon when they come for your votes and once they are the chair they sit put.
    Now the latest is a register Boeing 777 a flying war ship. It could be costing millions, friend Obama would have not given it for free. Yet millions of poor Indians cannot have one square meal and go to sleep in empty stomach. These are ” GOOD DAYS” are they not, yet for who is the big question.

  23. rude prices may or may not start rising in 2017. If OPEC says so then it is their wishful thinking. They(prices) may even dip further. I am not predicting. I just want to say that it is anyone’s guess. I wonder how reviewing nrega would add to inflation. Labor still eat government supplies of grains. Even if nrega adds to inflation then should it not be promoted? Every economic activity will affect either supply or demand side in some way and effectively have some impact on inflation.
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  24. I have gone through almost all the comments above.I wonder why are we discussing about 2019? Instead we should be discussing about the promises made by modiji in 2014 general elections and how much modiji have delivered? Country is being misled by him by bringing up different agenda which were not in bjp manifesto in 2014 general elections.For my hindu friends i would like to inform you at the time of vajpayee ji the ram mandir was on page 1 of bjp manifesto and now its on page 41 on modiji’s manifiesto. Bhakhts pls check BJP manifesto before abusing me.
    How about Rs15 lakh, return of black money in 100 days? Bjp was against FDI in retail and now they have plans to bring FDI in railways and defence. now even baba ram dev doesn’t speak about black money.Why?
    Dear brothers we should keep our religion,faith at our home and build a strong nation together.
    BJP is just divide and rule in the name of religion.mahengae say sub ko dikkat ho rahe hai phir bhe bhakti kyu nahi ja rahe hai..mahengae agar muslim,sikh,isae k lea hai to utni he mahengai hindu k lea bhe hai…pls try to understand. We are citizens of such a great country india but we are losing it just in the name of religion.Why can’t we discuss development politics insted muslim mukt bharat or congress mukt bharat? in democracy we need to have a strong opposition ….India is worls largest democratic country pls do not make it as world largest dictatorship under current govt.
    Jai Hind

  25. The writer should first predict the number of seats that congress will get in 2019. And then write all this in air.The writer should also tell that the public who shouted ‘Modi- Modi-Modi’ , what was the “shakti” behind that?. The writer does not know what derived the victory of this government. And he/she writing such write ups? Tell us what is the size of India in sq.meters and the land the other communities are holding in the world? The writer should take milk with Turmeric at night till 2019

  26. It will happen, already we have seen results in Bihar and Delhi. Lets wait for UP and Gujarat then bhakts will decide what to do ????

  27. Delhi, Bihar lets wait for UP, Punjab and GOA. I will not give any reference me myself support Modi in 2014 but when I saw all activities I started hating BJP so like this many Modi supporters is against him specially Dalits. So all that 5 points are VALID and Modi will not come back in 2019 ………….

  28. Author has untimely pridect the modi as p.m.he should have controlled his biased thoughts.congeess and communist are saying these things since june 2014!!!

  29. Chhodo yaar…jab tak govt musalmano ko maarti rahegi…tab tak is govt ko koi khatra nai h… development gya baad m…
    Phir s yahi govt 2019 m aane wali h…qki ab musalmano ko maaro aur Raaj kro wala condition h…Kya lgta h yeh log modi bhakt hn?? Bilkul nai..aaj modi musalmano k haq m baat kr le aur Sonia ya Rahul musalmano k khilaaf toh yeh log modi ko chhod Congress k bhakt ban jayenge… development s in logo ko koi lena dena nai h…Bas musalmano par jo govt zulm karegi wahi Raaj karegi India par…ab yeh India Hindustan nai Raha… It’s the beginning of end…likh k le lo

  30. I am a CA and MBA from US. Totally disagree with the author. Only blind people can make such statement and can’t see the true picture. Modi is doing great job. Can you ever imagine Rahul, Lalu, Sonia,Mamata Banerjee,Nithis kumar, Arvind Kejriwal, Sharad Pawar as your PM. The country has lost a lot in the last 10 years under congress. Now it is recovering. Just relax and enjoy.

  31. Can’t oblige Mr.pathak,this is what your desire is and the profecy is bloody rubbish.Dont vote for dianasty democracy demands justice and not medieval hierarchy.

  32. Ban on the Rs 500 made the poor and innocent people to suffer to a greater extent. So Narendra modi will face the consequences in the General elections

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