Global banking major HSBC on Tuesday forecast a strong growth for India’s export segment which is projected to outpace China in the period between 2025 and 2050.
As per new forecasts in HSBC’s report ‘Trade Winds’ — the merchandise exports from India are expected to grown by an average of six percent a year in the period between 2025 and 2050.
The report commissioned by HSBC Commercial Banking and compiled by Oxford Economics pegs China’s exports to grow just under five percent a year for the period under review.
Currently, the slowdown in global demand scenario and a dip in prices of petroleum products has dented India’s exports. India is a major exporter of refinery products.
The country’s goods shipments were down for the eleventh straight month in October with merchandise exports declining by 17.53 percent to $21.35 billion from $25.89 billion worth of goods sold abroad during the corresponding month of last year.
Besides India, the report cite Asia as the prime region which is expected to ignite a decade of global trade growth which will culminate into quadrupling of worldwide exports to an estimated $68.5 trillion by 2050.
“The importance of trade’s contribution to global growth and prosperity cannot be underestimated. Asia’s position at the leading edge of technological and supply chain innovation gives the region a unique opportunity to benefit from this next wave of globalisation,” said Paul Skelton, HSBC’s regional head of Commercial Banking, Asia Pacific.
Furthermore, the report projects a burst of intra-Asian trade that will lift the region’s share of global exports to 27 percent by 2050 from the present 17 percent.
“China should extend its lead as the world’s leading exporter, with its growing influence in Asia further extended by projects such as the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB),” the report said.
The report predicts a rise in Asia-Pacific’s share of global exports from around a third in 2015 to 46 percent in 2050. Western Europe’s share is expected to decline from 34 percent to 22 percent, and North America’s to fall from 11 percent to 9 percent.
The report added that the surge in Asian exports will mark a third wave of globalisation anchored by new technologies and increasing economic integration.
It elaborated that nimble networks of micro-multinationals that create their own specialised value chains will be at the core of a drive for prosperity that promises to take nations out of poverty and improve quality of life across the world.
“The next few years should carry the global economy into the next wave of globalisation, critically underpinned by sophisticated and pervasive digital technology that reduces international trade barriers, improves communication between cultures, levels the playing field for entrepreneurs and startups, and forms the foundation for an “always-on” global economy,” the report said.