Were Sunday’s exit polls manipulated to suit share market, ask social media

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Most exit polls predicted a landslide win for the BJP-led NDA with pollsters like Today’s Chanakya giving more seats than what the BJP had secured in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Arnab Goswami’s Republic TV predicted 295-315 seats for the NDA, while Times Now’s exit polls said that the NDA could win as many as 306 seats while the Congress-led UPA may have to settle for 132. Aaj Tak’s prediction gave the BJP-led alliance up to 365, 30 more seats than its performance in 2014. ABP was the only channel, which said that the NDA may not be able to secure a majority this time around.

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However, many have begun detecting a share market link to Sunday’s unprecedented election forecasts in favour of the saffron party. Veteran journalist Paranjoy Guha Thakurta wrote on Facebook, “Received from a knowledgeable source: I had written this in the morning. Just spoke to a friend who spoke to a very senior TV journalist.

“He said that stock market operators are paying TV channels to produce exit polls that will move the market in the days between the exit polls and the actual results and then move the market rapidly in a different direction once results are out. So whatever the exit polls say take them with a pinch of salt I have been advised.”

On Twitter too, many users felt that Sunday’s exit polls may have been manipulated to suit the share market, which opens on Monday.






Indian pollsters have had a history of getting their exit poll predictions wrong. Exit polls in India have never been accurate. In 2009 the poll of exit polls had said that the NDA will win 186 seats and the Congress-led UPA 197. The NDA won 160, while the UPA won the second term by winning 262 seats.

In 2014, the poll of all exit polls predicted 288 seats for the NDA and 102 for the UPA. In reality, the NDA won a bigger mandate with 336 seats while the UPA was reduced to just 59 seats.

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