After two years in office, time has come to boldly and clearly speak truth about Modi and his government

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Justice Markandey Katju

After two years of its rule, the time has come to now boldly and clearly speak out the truth about Mr. Modi and his government..

I accuse the present BJP government of failure on every front, and of resorting to fraudulent manipulation of facts and figures and ‘jumlas’ to cover up its failures, and of stoking the communal fires in many places for its own nefarious ends, while the country is sliding rapidly downhill, like an aircraft which has spun out of control, and is heading nose downwards towards the earth for an inevitable fatal crash..

Mr. Modi is flaunting his foreign visits and the figures of GDP growth of the Indian economy as if they are great achievements.

pakistan-economy-l-reuters

But let us consider a few facts :

1. According to Mark Twain, there are three kinds of lies : lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Statistics is such a wonderful thing that with its help one can manufacture any figure one wants, like a conjuror pulling a rabbit out of a hat.

The latest figures given by the Government of India authorities claiming 7.9% growth in GDP in the last quarter is an excellent example, and reminds one of Lord Haw-Haw ( William Joyce ), or the Nazi Propaganda Minister Dr. Goebbels, who kept proclaiming on radio to the German people right till the very end that Germany was winning the Second World War, when in fact it was losing.

According to this claim, the Indian economy is the fastest growing economy of the world, outstripping the growth in GDP of the Chinese economy, which grew by only 6.9% in the same period. Evidently, according to this figure, we are heading for an El Dorado or land of milk and honey some time in the future, and as Dr Pangloss would say ( see Voltaire’s ‘Candide’ ), quoting the German philosopher Leibniz, this is the best of all possible worlds.

Exports have fallen from 187.29 billion dollars in the period April -October, 2014, to 156.29 billion dollars in the period April-October 2015, i.e. a drop of 17.6%.

But a little scrutiny of the figures throws up several doubts. Are these figures true, or dressed up, like a Potempkin village ? Also, assuming they are true, is this GDP growth benefiting the Indian masses, or only a handful of big businessmen ?

Exports have fallen from 187.29 billion dollars in the period April -October, 2014, to 156.29 billion dollars in the period April-October 2015, i.e. a drop of 17.6%.

According to the statement of Raghuram Rajan, the RBI Governor, most factories are running at 70% of their capacity, while in 2011-2012 they were running at 80% of their capacity. This apparently shows manufacturing decline, rather than growth. According to a Business Standard report, corporate profitabilty is below 1% on an average.

So if exports have fallen, and manufacturing has grown by 9%, as claimed by the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, where have the increased quantity of goods manufactured been sold ? In the home market ? But India is a poor country, with 80% people having little purchasing power. And with the sharp escalation in food prices, real incomes have really gone down.

Bad loans by banks continue to mount. According to CARE, non performing assets during July-September, 2015 stood at about Rs. 3.37 lac crores, an increase of Rs. 71,000 crores. According to a report of Morgan Stanley, the number of stalled projects, the bulk of them in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, went up. Small and medium enterprises are having a difficult time trying to survive. The real estate sector, which provides a lot of jobs, is down in the dumps, with construction of new buildings going down, and the number of unsold homes going up.

According to the statement of Raghuram Rajan, the RBI Governor, most factories are running at 70% of their capacity, while in 2011-2012 they were running at 80% of their capacity. This apparently shows manufacturing decline, rather than growth. According to a Business Standard report, corporate profitabilty is below 1% on an average.

Bad loans by banks continue to mount. According to CARE, non performing assets during July-September, 2015 stood at about Rs. 3.37 lac crores, an increase of Rs. 71,000 crores. According to a report of Morgan Stanley, the number of stalled projects, the bulk of them in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, went up. Small and medium enterprises are having a difficult time trying to survive. The real estate sector, which provides a lot of jobs, is down in the dumps, with construction of new buildings going down, and the number of unsold homes going up.

An article by Andy Mukherjee published by Reuters states that the GDP growth of the Indian economy is one third a statistical mirage, and real GDP growth is more likely to be about 5% rather than 7.4% as claimed by the Indian authorities. Mukherjee says :

” The illusion comes from a recent supposed improvement in the way India calculates its Gross Domestic Product. In theory, Indian authorities claim that Indian GDP is close to international standards. In practice it has become utterly unreliable.

This week, investors dumped Indian assets after the Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point. RBI governor Raghuram Rajan found it difficult to explain why he had reduced borrowing costs five days after the country’s statistics office claimed stellar expansion in GDP.

What is the real GDP growth of the Indian economy ? Breakingviews answered that question by looking at three indicators: corporate earnings, auto sales and imports of computer software ( since retained earnings finance new investment projects; auto sales are a proxy for consumer demand; while software imports reflect productivity gains ). Mixing the three in a simple index suggests that growth in the most recent quarter was closer to 5 percent.”

2. But let us assume that the 7.9% figure is correct. However, the further question still remains :is this GDP growth benefiting the Indian masses, or just a handful of big businessmen ? Is the rich-poor divide growing ? Dilip Shanghvi, Gautam Adani, Mukesh Ambani, Aziz Premji, Pallonji Mistry, etc are worth billions of dollars, while the majority of Indians are struggling to make two ends meet, with prices of foodstuffs soaring

Unemployment is rapidly increasing. Is this vikas ? Where will the unemployed Indian youth end up ? As hawkers, or street vendors, or bouncers, or stringers, or criminals or suicides ? And will the girls end up as prostitutes ?

3. One crore youth are entering the Indian job market every year, but in the last 12 months only 1.4 lac jobs were created, whereas in the previous 12 months 4.3 lac jobs were created. So unemployment is rapidly increasing. Is this vikas ? Where will the unemployed Indian youth end up ? As hawkers, or street vendors, or bouncers, or stringers, or criminals or suicides ? And will the girls end up as prostitutes ?

What has happened to the slogan ‘sabka saath, sabka vikas’ ? It seems it was only a ‘jumla’. The communal fire is being stoked up in U.P. as elections approach ( as was done earlier in Muzaffarnagar ), and everyone knows who will benefit from this

4. Prices of foodstuffs like dal, potato, tomato and other vegetables are skyrocketing.

5. What has happened to the slogan ‘sabka saath, sabka vikas’ ? It seems it was only a ‘jumla’. The communal fire is being stoked up in U.P. as elections approach ( as was done earlier in Muzaffarnagar ), and everyone knows who will benefit from this

6. India is 135th in human development out of the approximately 200 countries in the world

Our country has tremendous poverty, massive unemployment, staggering malnutrition and lack of healthcare and good education for the masses.

What has this government done in this direction ? The answer is : a big zero,and only jumlas and dramas, apart from highly publicized visits of Modi to foreign countries, etc

To abolish all this, and raise the standard of living of our people must be the goal of all patriotic modern minded people. We have to create a modern, highly industrialized country in which all our citizens are getting decent lives.

But what has this government done in this direction ? The answer is : a big zero,and only jumlas and dramas, apart from highly publicized visits of Modi to foreign countries, etc

The test of every government or system is one, and only one : is the standard of living of the masses rising under it or not ? If not, the government or system is a failure.

From this standpoint ( and it is the only correct standpoint ), the Modi government is a total failure on all fronts.

57 COMMENTS

  1. Number of jobs created are 1.34 lac not 1.4 lac.

    Overall very well Analysed, we are not getting anything with Modi’s foreign visits as of now because FDI is not increasing as per our demands.

    Bad HDI index clearly explain out lack of seriousness for people’s standard of living, their education and health. But it’s not a new phenomenon. Previous governments also share the blame.

    Rising automobile sells and urban demands is an excuse that government is using to hide it’s failures. Cars are being bought by government employees. Thanks to 7th pay commission. Growth in automobile sector does not reflect true demand position. It will slow down in future when government employees ran out of money or saturation point achieved. Poor’s are not buying cars.

    Rising NPAs is directly linked to governments failure to recover from big corporate houses.most to the loan shared by some 10 corporates like adani and Ambanis.

    Power Minister and Transport Minister are also prone to Exaggeration,they often inflate figures.power ministry published list 7000 village where Rural electrification has been achieved. List shows my village also,where electrification achieved in 1963.NDTV also exposed the truth of reports. Nitin Gadkari often said that his ministry is building road at a rate of 30 km/day,this is factually incorrect.real data shows its 15.7 km/day.

    • Agree with u vineet and big agree with KATJU JI AND ALSO NOTE THAT LOSES JOBS ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN UR CALCULATION OF BOTH. IN LUDHIANA MANY IF SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES ARE CLOSED AND BIG ENTERPRISES HAVE REDUCED THEIR EMPLOYEES FIGURES WHICH INCLUDED ME ALSO.

    • Only government and government aided sector employees were paid a high high and high salary. But in the unaided sector more than 80% of employees and workers are getting below 10000 Rs as monthly salary, why not the Modi Jis govt. look on this illegal and pitiable conditions. Most of the CBSE School teachers unaided Colleges, Private hospitals are not paying at least 10000 Rs salary. If Modi’s govt. is a good govt. it must take care of it, and must fix a minimum scale for each category jobs.

  2. Mr. Khatju, People of India elected this Govt. with majority. We have already lost
    67 precious years. (including your period of Government service) 5 years is not a big period for any country to judge the performance of any government. Like what we have done for those 67 years, if this government is not worth to get reelected in 2019 Let us elect another government to try our luck. Why do you worry? Most of the people in India do not know and understand what elite people like you write in English papers. It is not possible for both of us to topple this government even we want to do so. So we will wait patiently Sir. Thank you.

    • True exports have fallen ,so have the imports and overall trade deficit has come down. industry and Banks are in bad shape ,thanks to high interest rates and strong exchange rate . More than interest rates ,these loans were given in the last so many years ,what can Modi do about that. Power situation is definitely better now. We have lost over 60 years under other government’s rule. 2 years is definitely far too less a time .

    • You must also remember only 31% Indians voted for BJP. And coming to your point why to worry?

      I must say elite people like you do not have to worry about managing their daily household expenses when the prices of essential product skyrocket. For an ordinary Indian, it definitely adds a lot of burden. So better think before you write .

    • I appreciate Thippanna statement.The topics start with three types of lies,than one quarry comes to our common citizen that what type lies is involved in Mr.Khatju statement.?

    • Most of the people also dont know what MMS or Modi does. They will again vote some stupid or rioter just by looking at those Tv Ads or rally speeches.

  3. This view is too extreme and only a snapshot.. Many of the issues mentioned are a legacy that Modi got from his successors and instead of putting a band aid, he is trying to bring structural changes for long term sustainable growth. But does one argue with someone who thinks that only their view is correct. See the tone of your note, no amount of good work could satisfy a pessimist.

  4. If factories are working at 70%, that’s more to do with Rajan’s interest rate policies than the govt. Good that the guy who slowed down the Indian manufacturing sector has finished his term.

  5. Will everything happen in 2 years, to get a sustainable growth, one should also slow down for a long term benifit.

    The country had been under this situation for years give them some time. They are trying to get numbers

  6. Cases in Indian courts are piling up.Bails are given to criminals left,right and centre.nobody is sure if a court case will be settled in his lifetime.Who is to be blamed?

  7. A very good analysis. It is true that the present government is harping much on Mr. Modi’s foreign visits and big promises made by various types of people abroad. To my little knowledge I don’t see any investment being made so far by any foreign based entity in India which could generate employment. Similarly foreign countries have done little. Black money is yet to come to India, even the names are yet to be revealed much less prosecution of the defaulters. In spite of such good relationship with so many countries as claimed by the Modi government we are still unable to extradite any of our offenders. On the other hand our institutions are beong destroyed systematically. Most important the relationship between people of various religion are deteriorating. Caste factor in the country is gaining strength on the support of the party in power. Sufferings of the common man is increasing, be it the cost of livelihood due to increase in price rise in addition to increase in tax liabilities or safety of his life or his freedom of speech and expression. All indices point towards one and only one thing that in reality we are headed south, whatever may be said and claimed by the party and the government in power.

  8. We should see to the rule of Congress first and then compare Mody govt.’s work.Corruption has somehow been controlled.Only two years in office and it is early to assess the govt.Congress had left worse situation.It can take time Be patient. Peopl will not forgive.Don’t blame because so far so good.

  9. Besides, at $1500′ we are 15% of world avg per capita income. Even if we grow at 8% and world grows at 3%, we will take 50 yrs to hit world average when S’pore took only 28 yrs to become fully developed. If India is inferior nation, let it outsource governance. Legislation and judiciary. Their courts decide cases in days and ours take decades. Let us either compete or give up.

  10. I hope we have to wait for some more time… And give chance to prove good governance by this present government, it hard to walk on the thorns and stones… Need time to clean every bit and enjoy the walk…..
    jai Bharath Mata…

    • wait my dear frn wait till your gud time passes away. blaming another person and another government is a foolish thing and pretending like a dirty works man quarrel with his tools. i feel that Mr. Modi is political mafia and nothing else\

  11. Thank you very much for such a comprehensive report on facts and figures Sir. Amidst all the efforts to show a cat as a Lion, Indiana need to be educated with more such facts. Awesome report and thank you very much SIR.

    • Bullshit report, this means world like aders who r praising Modi r idiots and this idiot is scholar in every field

  12. Dear sir, your views are quite correct and maintains the facts. But let me remind, very few Hon. PM of India do 15 August speech without fear,fight for NSG, welcomes FDI,launches Smart city,swaccha Bharat, fasal Beema,mudra yojna,skill development…it’s process,not a failure.

    • Aap gun gaate raho..janta to shayad bewakoof hai. Wo to shayad ameer hoti jaa rahi hai. Thali me rotiyo ki quantity bhi badh rahi hai. Daal to log bhar bhat ke kha rahe hain. Kaha ho bhai, bhakti chhodo practical bano. Raghuram rajan jaise economist ke saath aisa behaviour kiya ja sakta hai jiske raaj me usske raaj me aap aage badhne ke sapne dekh rahe ho. Jo party sirf hindu muslim ki rajneeti karti hai todne ki rajniti karti hai wo kya badhaegi desh ko aage. Yahi raha to wo din door nahi jab hamare desh ke do cjar tukde aur ho jaenge jo congress nahi kar pai wo kaam bjp kar degi. Ye kaun si neeti bana rahi hai hamari sarkar jo ki sirf ameero ko hi fayada ho raha hai. Garib to bechara mar raha hai aur marta hi rahega.

  13. Its really true, for a little example in the name of smart cities and diffrent “yojna” inciated by gov. with it ministers fill only their pockets and on the ground level their hasn’t taken a single step and no benefits getting by masses by the gov. . Correctly says by Mr. Katju these are only “Jumla”.

    • As in till now congress has filled ur pockets, by their schemes…. Then where from the swiss account get filled. R those Indian Aam Aadmis accounts

  14. Sleep with dogs…. u guys want to see great changes with in a span of two years….what were u doing till 60 yrs of Independence ??…if one guy is taking Indian citizens to positive road….u want misguide like wat Congress n MIMM and few other parties are doing….shit

  15. You know to chit indians and just put butter in cong bosses Rahul and Soniaji.Boss now at least think for India and be Indian.

  16. Someone has hit the nail really hard on the head of the BJP govt. How many more jumlas and disturbances to civic life we have to endure? Will common man ever be able to make two ends meet or will he ever be able to have his dal roti? God help India.

  17. Very biased report. Unethical I would say. Congress had more than 50 years of rule. And you are not ready to give Modiji even 5 years! Was congress able to eradicate poverty? On top of that it was corrupt to the core. We Indians are shameless. We never learn from our past mistakes. Instead of supporting him, and working along with him patiently, we attack him.
    And which country as of today is faring well may I ask.
    As far religion is concerned, we need our old Indian values. Neither do I belong to Hindu religion, nor am I living in India. But I do say that India does not need foreign religion, or a government with foreign mindset.
    Apart from financial growth, India also needs to rebuild it confidence as a spiritual nation. India is admired world over for its ancient culture and values. We are the only nation that has stood the test of time. Time and again for centuries we have been invaded. And we have survived. It’s only because of our deep ancient spiritual values. Just don’t put the blame on Modiji only. Every Indian is responsible for the mess that we are in today.
    We have so much of apathy. We care less and are not ready to join the fight. When Modiji is calling out to stand and work together, we create obstacles in his work. Look at the representatives of other minority groups, how they scream and shout and instigate the masses. You haven’t spoken a word about them. You haven’t scrutinized yourself. As an Indian I ask you what have you done for the country. What contribution have you done.
    He’s been asking for communal harmony. Are the minorities cooperating. They want to split India into half. Want to bring their own laws. And if it happens, God forbade, you won’t know what hit you. You will be lying in a pool of blood. Your free speech in the gutter. And these elements need ppl like you, because it’s serves their purpose. You are not janta ka reporter, I will say janta ka enemy. Remember, Rome wants built in a day.

  18. Sir Katju

    I don’t very much trust on datas personally. Over these two years of government if you deeply dig out every roiot, every hue and cry and every increasing intolrence in the coutry has been fragmented. If you notice that India has moved forward in most of the sectors. Its position in International stage has been all time high. This goverment is no God. It takes time everything good to reap fruits. You can’t expect a tree to bear fruits in just two years of its birth. Have some patience Sir. and this Janta Ka Reporter is nothing but an AAPiya’s page so I can’t expect this shit media to report anything good.

  19. True…we can see the hurry in FDI policy changes made by this govt, as it is already bankrupt. Govt was handed over to them 2 years back and no sincere effort can be seen other then foreign trips and propaganda politics. The RSS which advice Swadeshi is keeping quite in this issue as it their govt which is doing this. The same people who broke KFC outlets and who rallied for Swadeshi are taking U turn. FDI is never a solution for Indian economy. An all-round growth of all indian sectors including agricultural sector, especially the latter should flourish as we r blessed by so many rivers and fertile land and the requirements in food sector is perennial and should be tapped. Ultimately we do not eat automobiles but food. AS FDI Investment pour in, it looks as if India is developing, but the real fact is, a foreign investor will not keep his profit in the country, will take it to some other to invest or to his own country to buy properties. Hence it is old wine in a new bottle. Let’s see what else r jumlas….

  20. And the contribution from Justice Katju is to join with any other voice which is against present Govt. and get bashed down in debates. Was pondering over the point, did his article even worth the time I spent on reading thinking an article from one of the earlier Justice in India? the answer I got was a blunt NO.

  21. Dear Katju,
    Is it not cynical of u to expect every thing from this govt in 2 yrs what Congress could not do in 60 years.also don’t u see how negative Congress is in rajyasabha when any reforms r envisaged,if u expect miracles in 2 years ,what did u do in ur career as judge if supreme Court?? Hav u not faced resistance from fellow judges even if ur intentions were right.
    How do u expect miracles to happen when we r facing worst ever drought for continuous droughts for two years and worst ever global economic gloom which indirectly affected our exports in value terms and manufacturing activities.inspite of of all this our economy is showing GDP growth of 7.6 % ,which is much higher than BRICS or any other nation.
    Please be careful of these facts and make ur irrelevant statements

  22. We should give some more time to this Government. We should also try to focus the areas where Govt.’s attention is needed such as how what difficulties will be faced by Senior citizens who have no pension income, by cutting down the rates of interest for facilitating industrial growth. Some survey may be done to find out the number of such persons in India today.. what should be the govt,s thinking .do to alleviate their difficulties. Next what should be the minimum wage for persons working in unorganized sectors considering the cost of living index. Govt. should try to improve the earnings at all levels so that one can buy his/her essential needs at market rates rather then enjoying a subsidy.

  23. Good analysis by Mr Katju..Inspite of many foreign trips by our PM our exports are declining continuously .This proves that our PM and FM are inefficient in dealing with foreign countries and exports

  24. Not good approach made against PM to defame is honest works to rescues nation from its morass rendered by previous govt being in rule for over 50 yrs.PM is right to do good for nation in the given system. Capitatists can’t be ignored in India to use them in development. Yes some lapses may be found.But it has limitations too.Two yrs of rule in so big nation without its govts in max states & big opposition united together ag PM is not sufficient pd to so its all performances in stores.

  25. For performance of Modi Govt.
    , we can wait. However, we should beware of the communal fire being stoked up in U.P. as elections approach, whosoever is doing this.

  26. Justice Katju accuses PM Modi of manipulating statistics to his advantage to depict a rosy picture. The statistics he has used to state his case against PM Modi are also half truth and manipulated to overstate his case. He has taken support of the following misleading statistics:
    1) Exports are down by 17.6% in value terms: It is true the exports are down by 17.6% in value terms but in Quantitiative terms exports are not showing any negative trends. The decline in value is primarily due to decline in commodity prices including refinded petroleum products. The other half of the story is imports have also come down in value terms and infact more than the exports which has brought down the CAD to 1% of GDP boosting our Forex. The Global trade is facing a massive slow down and that is an external factor which has not allowed Indian exports to grow.
    2)Capacity utilization of factories have come down from 80% to 70% over a period of 5 years: There was a massive addition to the production capacities over the last five years as well. The GDP in quantitative terms has gone up on an average by 5% annually. But due to higher capacity built up and some slow down in capacity absorption the overall capacity utilization has followed. Justice Katju, this is too simplistic a figure to rest your case on. The Barometer of Corporate profitability is reflected by the Stock Exchange which are up by 20% during the Modi era.
    3)Bad Loans and Non Performing Assets of the Banks: The NPA’s have been piling up during the UPA era. The UPA is directly responsible for the poor state of NPA’s with the Public Sector Banks and is a proof of crony capitalism prevalent at that time. PM Modi’s government if anything is cleaning up the mess left behind by UPA. the Public Sector Banks are recapitalised using the Taxpayers money to overcome the sins committed by the previous regime.
    4) Unemployment: The charge is leveled at a government which has been in power for two years and not at the previous regime which ruled for 60 years. The FDI has gone up 45% which will create more jobs. Many more sectors have been opened up for FDI investments. Corruption, nepotism and crony capitalism have been brought under control. India has risen in the Ease of doing business index. More roads are layer per day. Emphasis is rather on infrastructure and long term asset building than doling out subsidies. Employment will also pickup in due course as well. Not to underestimate the debilitating impact of two back to back droughts on the growth and employment.
    5)Inflation: The CPI inflation has come down to 5.5% from a high of 10% in the last two years. The prices of few items have gone up primarily due to the effect of two failed monsoons. The overall inflation management by this government has been good.
    6) The inclusive schemes launched by this government for the farmers and the poor of this country will show its effect in the years to come. Justice Katju has presented his case of half glass empty which in itself has a case for half glass full. In course of time the direction in which this government is working will fill the glass to the brim.

  27. And this buffoon was a Supreme Court judge! Shudder! The shallowness of his arguments are startling. Turn on any business news channel and you get better and more nuanced understanding of the state of the economy, GDP, growth, inflation, etc. God help us if such is the standard of Supreme Court judges!

  28. Some of the observations made by Dr. Kaju are worrisome, the picture is not so gloomy on the face of the fact that no viable alternative is visible. One has to bear the One-man show performance. Modiji’s intentions, efforts, performance are undoubtedly praiseworthy. He has a passion and zeal to do something exceptionally good for the country. Some reforms are badly needed at priority level like food inflation law and order, women’s security , uplft of Farmers. Common man is not worried about GDP calculations or its correctness.

  29. There are hardly any Muslim apart from the intellectual few who are not against our PM. They have this preconceived notion that our PM is promoting Hindutva and isolating Muslims. This thought has been deeply cultivated in their brains and now people like katju and media fuel their head by using the world communalism in every aspect possible. Haven’t there been communal violence in UP before 2014. The hatred UPITES carry for other religion is going on from ages and way before modi govt. Forget religion, they don’t spare other castes. I think our PM is the best thing to happen to India at a time when the country was at its worst because of Congress. I am not saying that our PM is doing a wonderful job. I expect more from him but he has been sincerely trying and I appreciate his efforts to help India grow. India is being perceived in a different light across the globe thanks to him. Why such statistics were never discussed during the Congress era and suddenly there are many patriots who are worried about our country and it’s future. Were they hibernating or why they turned a blind eye when Congress was looting the country.

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